New Forest East

Home energy performance

• There are 20,200 homes with an EPC rating lower than C, which therefore need improvement to meet the Government's home energy efficiency target for 2035 – which the EEIG recommends bringing forward to 2030.
  • New Forest East ranks 132/573 England and Wales Constituencies for the share of homes – 20,200 – rated C. This is better than the UK average.
  • It ranks 173/573 for the share of homes – 500 – rated F or G (lower ranking is worse). This is better than the UK average:

Home energy investment

• 20,200 homes below an EPC C rating means 2,900 need to be improved each year to meet the EPC C target for all homes by 2030.
• 2,094 households have received assistance with energy efficiency measures over the nine years of the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) to the end of 2022. That's 5.2% of households in New Forest East, lower than the Great Britain average of 8.6%.
• In 2022, 52 households were supported by ECO with a total investment of £430,000.

• Getting all homes up to EPC C requires investment of £151.50 million by 2030 – £21.6 million per year.
• Alongside regulation of minimum energy efficiency standards for the rented sectors, Government should contribute around £49.5 million of this total (£7.1 million per year to 2030). Some of this will continue to come from the Energy Company Obligation. More may come from the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund and Home Upgrade Grants committed to for this Parliament, to address social housing and some of the 500 homes in New Forest East rated EPC F or G.
• The remainder needs to come from able-to-pay homeowners incentivised by a step-change in government support for energy efficiency investment. Critically, this support is currently missing from existing policy and manifesto commitments.
• For example, varying the rate of Stamp Duty to take account of the EPC rating alongside the sale price could incentivise investment by homeowners and help to embed good energy performance in property values.
  • In New Forest East over the last five years, the average number of residential property transactions subject to Stamp Duty was 1,500.
  • If the properties transacted reflect the Constituency-wide composition of EPC ratings, then 800 properties rated D or worse change hands each year and homeowners could – with a Stamp Duty incentive in place – be motivated to improve them.
  • This could therefore make a significant contribution to the 3,000 properties that need to be improved in New Forest East each year to meet the EPC C target by 2030 – alongside rented sector regulation, a properly funded and locally led scheme (potentially supported with Home Upgrade Grants), the ECO, and other incentives.

Fuel poverty and excess winter mortality

• Using the government's low-income, low energy efficiency indicator, 3,400 households are in fuel poverty in 2023: 8.5%, lower than England's average level of 14.4%. This ranks it 38 out of 533 English Constituencies (higher rank is better).
• However, to give a better sense of households' exposure to higher energy prices during the cost of living crisis, an additional measure is used. This looks at how many households would need to spend over 10% of their disposable income, after housing costs, to keep adequately warm. Under this measure, 11,900 households are in fuel poverty in 2023: 29.4%, lower than England's average level of 49.0% This ranks it 53 out of 533 English Constituencies (higher rank is better).
• Excluding the impact of Covid, there were 170 excess winter deaths over the last 5 years for which data are available, of which:
  • 51 can be attributed to cold housing conditions
  • 34 can be linked to the coldest 25% of homes in New Forest East
  • 17 can be directly attributed to fuel poverty
• The vulnerability of New Forest East to excess winter mortality in 2020-21 ranked 529 out of 573 (lower is worse) Constituencies for which data are available.

Wider impacts

• Getting all homes up to a good level of efficiency would save each household on average £500 per year on their energy bills at current energy prices. This would amount to £10.1 million per year across New Forest East once all homes are improved.
• The number of economically active people in New Forest East is 49,100, of whom 2,000 work in construction. 970 economically active people aren't employed. Of these, 170 are young – aged just 16-24. Energy efficiency investment could support employment of 360 people to 2030.
• The annual net gross value added (GVA) from an energy efficiency infrastructure investment programme in New Forest East would be £8.6 million. The present value of GVA over the duration of a programme to 2030 would be £52.6 million.
• Other benefits not quantified here include increased tax revenues, the avoided (including hidden) costs of unemployment, better health from improved housing, more spending power, and the latter's impact on the New Forest East's economy.